Børge Brende is President and CEO of the World Economic Forum in Geneva. The former Foreign Minister of Norway is the successor to WEF founder Klaus Schwab. Every year, heads of government, royalty, CEOs, human rights activists and environmentalists meet in the Swiss ski resort of Davos to discuss the global political situation.
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ZEIT ONLINE:
Mr. Brende, Donald Trump will soon move back into the White House. What do you
expect from Trump in the coming four years?
Børge Brende: Trump brings the
experience of his first term with him. In 2017, it took about a year for him to
really settle into the White House and internalize the full scope of executive
power. This time, Trump will leverage his power from day one. He knows the prerogatives of a U.S. president,
understands when he needs Congress and when he doesn’t, and has a team that
understands this as well. Where this will ultimately lead, however, will become
clearer in a few months.
ZEIT ONLINE:
So this time things will be more professional in Washington—but not necessarily
easier for the rest of the world. Does that make him more dangerous?
Brende: That’s your wording.
The World Economic Forum is a nonpartisan and neutral institution; we do not
make political statements. I would, though, put it this way: America has a
functioning system of checks and balances. The Republican majority in the House
of Representatives is razor thin. There will be a need for compromises also in
the coming years. We have worked with several of the new nominees in a very
good way in the past, like the designated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. One interesting development will be the
dynamics within the Republican Party itself.
ZEIT ONLINE:
Can you give an example?
Brende: Elon Musk has
strongly advocated for the H1-B visa program. For him, it’s a cornerstone of
the U.S. tech industry’s success, enabling the recruitment of the best
engineers and scientists from around the world. However, within Trump’s MAGA
camp, many voices argue that this depresses the wages of American engineers and
that such migration should be heavily restricted. This will likely lead to
disputes. Though it appears that Trump is siding with Musk on this issue.
ZEIT ONLINE:
This year’s meeting in Davos is set to focus on trust and cooperation. How can there
be trust and cooperation when global politics are dominated by authoritarian
leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping?
Brende: The post-Cold War global
order of the past 30 years has come to an end. Now, we are between orders. But
even in today’s polarized world, countries like China and the U.S. have an
interest in collaboration. There are areas where cooperation makes sense purely
out of self-interest, such as combating pandemics, climate change and rules for
AI or cybercrime. Cybercrimes cost the world over $2 trillion annually. Even
self-interest can drive greater cooperation.
ZEIT ONLINE:
Nevertheless, a global trade war looms.
Brende: I wouldn’t phrase it
that sharply. Seventy percent of global trade still falls under World Trade
Organization rules. Abandoning that, which would lead to a full decoupling of
global trade, risks a 7 to 8 percent drop in global GDP, that is very dramatic and
something that no one wants. Even during Trump’s first term, when he imposed
tariffs on China, trade volume between China and the U.S. actually grew.
ZEIT ONLINE:
In 2017, Trump’s first year in office, you were Norway’s foreign minister. How
did you experience him back then?
Brende: At heart, Trump is a
businessman and wants deals. That’s how I experienced him, and that’s how you
need to engage with him. Europe managed this quite well during his first term,
which is why I’m not overly pessimistic. There are also opportunities.
ZEIT ONLINE:
Many companies that were previously critical of Trump are now aligning with
him. Do you think some business leaders are even pleased that he won?
Brende: I think quite a few
businesses in the U.S. supported Trump due to his promises to reduce
bureaucracy, cut taxes and lower energy costs, which they felt could drive
growth in the U.S. At the same time, there’s concern about import tariffs
potentially fueling inflation again. Additionally, mass deportations of illegal
immigrants could impact prices, as many of them work in critical industries.
The U.S. economy is highly dependent on migration. In the construction sector,
for example, two million of the seven million people employed are undocumented
migrants.